Global warming is upon us, according to the National Academy of Sciences. The Earth's surface temperature has risen by about one degree Fahrenheit in the past century, with accelerated warming during the past two decades. Warmer temperatures could spell disaster for some species of insects, but Charles Sturt University’s (CSU) Professor Kevin Parton says the Greenhouse Effect might prove to be a boon to other species. And in some cases, more insects mean more disease.

 

"Warmer temperatures [caused by the The Greenhouse Effect] could spell disaster for some species of insects and might prove to be a boon to other species. And in some cases, more insects mean more disease." Professor Kevin Parton

 

He says these tiny creatures could have an enormous effect on global health, resulting in disease expansion worldwide..

 

Professor Parton is CSU’s new Head of the Orange Campus, as well as Head of the School of Rural Management. He describes himself as "an economist interested in evaluating the environmental consequences" and his range of research interests as "eclectic."

 

It’s an apt description; Risk management, decision analysis, research management, economic evaluation, climate and the economic value of forecasting, and strategic management and leadership are just some of his areas of interest.

 

Others include agricultural economics, agribusiness management, modelling and simulation, and the effect of climate change on health - more specifically, the relationships between climate, weather and disease. His research has revealed that weather affects the incidence of various insect-borne diseases such as Ross River Virus.

 

“As one of the leading scientists in this field in Australia, Professor Parton's work has influenced our community and policy-makers,” University of Adelaide’s Department of Public Health senior lecturer Dr Peng Bi says. “His research results can be applied to identify appropriate societal response for reducing vulnerabilities to climate change in Australia.”

 

In Australia, there are more than 70 different viruses spread by insects. Only a few of these viruses are known to cause illness in humans. An arboviral infection, Ross River Virus is significant because of its frequency and the disabling rheumatic symptoms it can cause. It is the most common and widespread of the arboviruses that infect humans in Australia.

 

The virus is spread by certain types of female mosquitoes, causing a flu-like illness with joint pains. Although many people will recover completely within a few weeks, others will have symptoms lasting more than three months, and in rare cases for more than a year. The Medical Journal of Australia says the direct cost to the community is estimated to be $1 018 per patient, while mosquito control programs are also costly; $3 million for the Brisbane area alone for example. In Australia, where this disease is notifiable, up to 8 000 cases are reported annually, and Professor Parton says this is expected to rise.

 

“Because of the time lag between changing weather conditions, increased insect numbers and higher incidence of the disease, it is possible to predict a potential increase in disease given observed weather conditions.,

 

“For example, our research has shown that a wetter-than-normal spring in parts of south-east Queensland leads to higher than normal Ross River Virus incidence in the area.”

 

Professor Parton says the information is important locally for public health agencies to plan future health care needs. And as the world warms, we can expect to see the further spread of this virus as well as other diseases across the globe.

 

“Given current knowledge of the effect of weather conditions on the life cycles of the virus and its insect carriers, we can estimate where various diseases can occur as climate change proceeds.”

 

 

 

 

 

Professor Parton’s interest in climate change and insects began when he researched for his doctorate in the 1970s.

 

“I was initially interested in decisions made in regards to wool stockpiling,” Professor Parton says. “This naturally led me to research long-term forecasting. At the time there was very little economic value from long-term weather forecasting, but that has improved in recent years.”

 

He has since developed an interest in health, having explored the dramatic periodic increase in Meningitis deaths associated with drought conditions in West Africa. 

 

“Many people are predisposed to Meningococcal disease but the throat membrane in healthy humans stops the disease from passing to the blood stream. It can be treated if the patient receives attention and antibiotics within 48 hours, but this is difficult in some African locations where aid agencies will need to transport their health specialists to the area and set up. By then it’s too late for a large number of sufferers.”

 

Because epidemics in Africa seem to be associated with dry conditions, the World Health Organisation has been interested in weather as a predictor of the disease. This spurred Kevin Parton to look at similar cases of Dengue Fever and Ross River Fever in Australia as well as Malaria in China.

 

Because epidemics in Africa seem to be associated with dry conditions, the World Health Organisation has been interested in weather as a predictor of the disease. This spurred Kevin Parton to look at similar cases of Dengue Fever and Ross River Fever in Australia as well as Malaria in China.

 

Dr Bi Peng believes Professor Parton’s research on climate change and population health is incredibly important to future global health.

 

“It will help us better understand the impact mechanism (of diseases), identify the vulnerable populations, raise public awareness and help policy planning and adaptive strategies,” Dr Peng Bi explained. “This is particularly important to developing countries such as Africa and China, given their inadequate public infrastructure and public health system.”

 

Professor Parton says most people are aware that global warming is happening, “but I don’t think they realise how a slight change in temperature can affect nature’s balance. Mosquitos would probably expand their territory considerably with a rise in temperature and humidity.

 

“A two degree increase in temperature could see Ross River Fever hit Sydney. Mind you, the possibility of contracting the illness is slim thanks to Australia’s well designed public health system and the measures people take to avoid mosquito bites.”

 

With a short-term solution to containing these illnesses difficult to find, Professor Parton says that prevention is the only cure.

 

“Flyscreens and mosquito repellant are two ways to stop bites but people also need to make sure their gardens aren’t attracting mosquitoes. Make sure unused plant pots and blocked gutters aren’t storing water. The pooled water attracts mosquitoes to lay eggs and the larvae will add to an already growing population of insects.”

 

For the future Professor Parton is interested in developing a multidisciplinary team to examine the impact of global warming on communities in rural Australia.

 

“What is missing from previous studies is an integration of the various impacts of climate change on farming, human health, the regional economy, the community and the environment.”