A looming election, a $17 billion dollar shortfall in revenue, and education reforms and a disability insurance scheme to fund, has set the scene for Federal Treasurer Wayne Swan to hand down the Budget on Tuesday 14 May.

 

Charles Sturt University (CSU) has experts who can provide analysis.

 

Professor of Economics, John Hicks  from the School of Accounting and Finance in Bathurst, can explain the economic conditions influencing government revenue and spending plans.

 

“The data suggests that activity in the Australian economy throughout the past year fell short of the level expected when the 2012/2013 Budget was framed, hence the shortfall in revenue required to achieve the predicted surplus,” he said. “Many factors contributed to this result but perhaps the most important is the failure of the world economy, particularly China, to rebound as strongly as anticipated.”

 

Professor Hicks said stronger growth expected in the world economy in the year ahead may provide further opportunity for the Australian Government to reduce the deficit as revenues rise.

 

“However, that growth is expected to be patchy so we can expect the Budget to be less ambitious in the desire to achieve a surplus,” Professor Hicks said. “Unless the recent reduction in the cash rate, which confirms that the economy is in trouble, is intended to compensate for a larger deficit reduction than might otherwise have been pursued.”

 

Strategic Professor of Agribusiness, Kevin Parton is an economist in the School of Management and Marketing in Orange.  

 

“Recent pronouncements from the Government indicate that foreshadowed income tax cuts from 2015 to compensate for the carbon tax may be smaller that originally anticipated,” he said.

 

“This is because the carbon tax itself may be lower than anticipated and hence there will be less of a need for compensation for consumers. The reason for a lower carbon tax in Australia is that (a) the level of Australia's carbon tax will be moving into line with the European carbon price from 2015 and (b) the latest carbon prices in Europe are far below the levels of 2011 when the Australian carbon tax legislation was instituted.”

Lecturer in Economics and International Research, Professor Kishor Sharma from the School of Accounting and Finance  in Wagga Wagga believes regional Australia will be most affected by cuts in public spending.

 

“Those living in rural and regional Australia already have limited services in terms of health and higher education,” he said. “Further cuts in public spending in these sectors will significantly impact on their wellbeing.”  

 

“In the current financial climate we are unlikely to see any additional investment in rural road networks, rail services or airports, which urgently need upgrading to attract investment in regional Australia.

 

“New investment in regional Australian is important to tackle high and rising unemployment which is a root cause of high incidence of mental health problems in the region,” he said.

 

Professor Sharma said the government should seriously revisit how to rehabilitate our agriculture sector, which contributes significantly to rural income and employment.

 

“One way to address this maybe to take industrial subsidies away from inefficient industries, such as the passenger motor vehicle industry, and instead channel more money towards agricultural development and irrigation to sustain employment in rural areas,” Professor Sharma said.

 

Political scientist, Associate Professor Dominic O’Sullivan  from CSU’s School of Humanities and Social Sciences in Bathurst can talk about the motivation behind the promises and the potential consequences of this election year Budget.

 

CSU Executive Dean of Education, Professor Toni Downes will be available to talk about early childhood education and school funding reforms.

 

“Increased funding and a better model for distributing that money to primary and secondary schools is long overdue,” Professor Downes said. “The proposed school education reforms provides an historic opportunity to improve student outcomes with extra funding for disadvantaged students, for example Indigenous students, those from low socio-economic backgrounds and kids from rural and regional Australia.”

 

 

Researcher and lecturer Dr Maree Bernoth  from the School of Nursing Midwifery and Indigenous Health in Wagga Wagga will be available to talk about funding in the aged care sector.

 

“Given the shortfall in revenue it is difficult to predict what the Budget will hold for health but I would be concerned if money was diverted from aged care as it would result in even more reduced quality of life for some of our most vulnerable citizens,” Dr Bernoth said.