The head of one of Australia’s leading communication schools, Charles Sturt University’s (CSU) Associate Professor Tom Watson believes UK research on the future of television presents an opportunity for the Australian broadcast sector to anticipate change over the next decade. 

This follows a recent CSU School of Communication seminar in Sydney on the future of television, presented by UK media expert Dr Christine Daymon, of Bournemouth University’s Media School.

Dr Daymon recently completed a study with UK industry experts on what British TV will be like in ten years. Her research developed four likely scenarios for the future of television.

“Our audience agreed that 90 per cent of the UK research scenarios were relevant to Australia,” Professor Watson said, adding that industry leaders attending the seminar believe two – “Global Challenge” and “Digital World” – are most likely to occur. 

“Digital World” says that the full potential of digital technologies is realised. It relies on moderate economic growth and a strong consumerist society. There is a wide-ranging take-up of multi-channel digital services from cable, satellite and broadband. The UK discussions found that public service broadcasters would play a reduced role. However, vastly more choice and competition will impact on existing commercial networks.

“Global Challenge” says that big is beautiful and global players dominate. The broadcast industry is worldwide, with international partnerships and alliances common. Production of programs comes from a few large players, supported by an extensive freelance sector. Public service broadcasters become stronger, with increasing opportunities for commercial activities.

There were two less favoured scenarios. “Goodbye TV” foretells the end of the “box”, as we know it, and a complete switch to broadband and wireless delivery, with TV viewing at an all-time low. “Back to Basics”, which is driven by a worldwide prolonged recession and political tensions, sees the switch to digital broadcasting abandoned whilst analogue TV remains at the heart of a public broadcasting-led service. 

“The whole broadcasting sector, not just television, and all the collateral players should look at these scenarios as ways of anticipating change, rather than waiting for it to happen. Dr Daymon’s study has valuable lessons for Australia,” said Professor Watson.