Seven years on from the 9/11 terrorist attacks in the United States, a Charles Sturt University (CSU) academic is posing the questions “what has changed” and “are we winning against terrorism”?

 

Associate Professor Nick O’Brien asserts that, prior to the attacks on 11 September 2001, terrorism was essentially a domestic issue with operatives working in cells. 

 

“Old-style terrorists did not want to get caught and certainly were not intent on committing mass murder. Importantly they had a political agenda and were willing to negotiate. Investigating terrorist offences, although complex, was relatively straightforward. And then came al-Qaeda (AQ).”

 

As a former leading terrorism investigator for Scotland Yard in his native Britain, Professor O’Brien has watched the unfolding drama around al-Qaeda for ten years.

 

“AQ terrorism is distinctly international. It has been estimated that there are AQ members in over 70 countries. Cell structures are loose, leading to its description as a ‘franchise’. 

 

“And it is successful. Mass murder is definitely on the agenda and an aim for the group. There is little indication that AQ is interested in negotiation or that they would dilute their goal of a pan-Islamic caliphate,” Professor O’Brien said. 

 

“Investigating terrorist offences is now so complex that investigative teams can consist of hundreds of detectives with a diverse range of skills. Any investigation will have an international dimension and it is likely that large numbers of computer storage devices will be seized, some of which may be encrypted or in a foreign language. Worst of all, experts are now discussing the likelihood of nuclear terrorism.”

 

According to Professor O’Brien, there have been both successes and failures against terrorism. He believes AQ is now regrouping in the tribal areas Pakistan near the Afghani border.  Europol, the police agency that represents countries of the European Union, reported there were 583 failed, foiled or successful attacks in the EU in 2007, a rise of 24 per cent over the previous year. 1 044 people were arrested for terrorist offences in the same period, a rise of 48 per cent.

 

 “Jonathan Evans, head of the United Kingdom’s (UK) domestic intelligence agency MI5, said in November 2007 that his organisation knew of 2 000 individuals who were a direct threat to national security and public safety, and that there was probably another 2 000 about whom they were not aware.  How many of those will have connections to Australia?” he said.

 

“The good news is that support for AQ is diminishing and some senior Islamic authorities, who were previously supported the group, now condemn its actions. Arrests have been made and people have been convicted of terrorism offences.

 

“However, I think terrorism is here to stay for the foreseeable future,” Professor O’Brien concluded.