A Charles Sturt University (CSU) PhD student is predicting a swing to Labor in the blue ribbon Liberal seat of Wagga Wagga in the NSW election on Saturday 28 March.

Mr Liam Lander reviewed 20 years of electoral data for both state and federal elections in the Riverina as part of a Summer Research Scholarship at the CSU Regional Archives. His report, Strange Culture: The Country Labor Party in the Riverina, was published in February 2014.

"In next month's NSW election, there is likely to be a significant swing to Labor in the seat of Wagga Wagga, possibly somewhere in the order of 10 to 20 per cent," said Mr Lander. "However this will not be anywhere near enough to unseat the sitting Liberal member Mr Daryl Maguire.

"There is local speculation that Mr Maguire maybe seriously threatened by Country Labor candidate Mr Dan Hayes, as a result of a combination of Mr Maguire's perceived unpopularity and current circumstances favourable to Labor, such as Liberal Party disunity and widespread anti-Abbott sentiment, which no doubt effected the recent unprecedented defeat of the Newman Liberal government in Queensland."

Mr Lander believes there was, however, a unique set of political circumstances in Queensland that do not extend to NSW.

"The 2011 NSW election was an aberration in an otherwise stable and consistent set of voting patterns in Wagga Wagga in the recent past.

"In the 2011 poll, Labor in Wagga Wagga experienced its lowest result in decades, suffering a -23 per cent swing and receiving only 10.4 per cent of the first preference votes, down from 33 per cent in 2007.

"In addition to a state-wide swing of 13.4 per cent away from Labor in 2011, local independent candidate Dr Joe McGirr, who campaigned on a platform to upgrade the Wagga Wagga Base Hospital, stole 31.6 per cent of the primary vote from the major parties. 

"Dr McGirr is not running in the 2015 election and the redevelopment of the hospital is underway. Over the past two decades of state elections in Wagga Wagga, Labor has averaged 30.5 per cent of the primary vote over five elections (not including 2011) with a narrow variation."

Mr Lander says the anticipated swing to County Labor next month will therefore recover much of the ground lost to Dr McGirr in 2011. He notes that although Labor has not won the seat of Wagga Wagga in a state election since Eddie Graham 57 years ago, Labor has come extraordinarily close in the past.

In 1999, Labor candidate Col McPherson was narrowly defeated by Mr Maguire by only 1 per cent of the primary vote.

"The circumstances that led to this narrow defeat resulted from criticism of the National Party over economic policies, which led both the Liberal and National parties to present candidates in 1999," he said. "This divided the conservative vote and allowed Labor to stake a more significant portion of the primary vote, although County Labor was later disadvantaged after preferences."

Mr Lander graduated with a Bachelor of Arts (Honours) with Honours Class 1 from CSU in Wagga Wagga last December. He has started his PhD at CSU. Mr Lander is a former member of the local branch of the ALP.