The decision by the newly elected Rudd Labor government to ratify the Kyoto Protocol effectively ends Australia’s international isolation on climate change and redefines the national agenda for social, economic and environmental challenges.

 

Kyoto also provides the nation with significant opportunities, according to Charles Sturt University’s (CSU) Head of the School of Rural Management, Professor Kevin Parton.

 

Professor Parton said “It gets Australia back to the negotiating table for the next round of Kyoto at the current Bali Conference which will determine international policy towards greenhouse gas reduction. It is important that Australia is present as a full member in order to influence policies which will have very long-term consequences.”

 

 

“Another major benefit is the opportunity for Australian business to participate in international carbon credit markets and to take part in the Clean Design Mechanism (CDM) which enables businesses to earn emission-reduction credits towards Kyoto targets by investing in developing countries such as China”.

 

Professor Parton believes government policy changes are required to achieve these targets, but he argues both greenhouse gas and fiscal growth targets can be achieved simultaneously. Another concern is to ensure that ‘the poor’ are not adversely affected by these changes.

 

“Whatever form the eventual policy takes in Australia, the announcement to sign the Kyoto Protocol is a great step forward because immediate policy change is needed if we are to contain climate change,” Professor Parton said.

 

The short-term impact of joining Kyoto is minimal or none at all, according to Dr Rod Duncan, a lecturer with the CSU School of Marketing and Management.

 

He points out that Australia is currently tracking only a few percentage points above its Kyoto goal, so joining the existing Kyoto agreement, with emissions to be 108 per cent of 1990 levels in 2008-2012, will require few immediate changes. Dr Duncan believes a change in land clearing patterns in one year could see Australia comply with existing Kyoto targets. 

 

“It is far too early to say what the longer-term impact will be for 2017 and beyond. The current version of the Kyoto protocol only slows down global warming by a decade and is not a real solution to global warming. We will have to wait and see what comes out of this Bali round of negotiations.” 

 

“Real global warming solutions will require significant cuts in emissions relative to 1990 levels, rather than stabilising emissions to 1990 levels. For example, to stabilise CO2 levels in the atmosphere, we would have to see emission levels reduced to approximately 60 per cent of 1990 levels for Australia. Of course, a lot depends on what the big emitters for this next century, India and China, choose to do,” Dr Duncan said.